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카지노의 수익 및 환수율

카지노의 수익원은 손님들이 와서 베팅하는 돈입니다. 게임에서 승리하면 손님에게 당첨금을 지급하고, 패배하면 손님의 베팅 금액을 회수합니다. 즉 카지노의 매출은 사람들이 베팅한 금액이 아니라, 사람들이 패배하여 잃은 돈입니다. 따라서 카지노의 영업이익률은 무지막지합니다. 현금으로만 거래하기 때문에 제조업처럼 제조 원가도 없고, 재고 관리도 필요 없습니다. 그저 카지노 운영에 필요한 운영 자금만이 비용의 전부입니다.

결국 카지노의 매출은 얼마나 많은 사람들이 카지노를 방문하여 게임을 즐기느냐 여부에 달려 있습니다. 그래서 카지노는 더욱 많은 사람이 방문하도록 카지노 외에도 다양한 이벤트와 관광 시설을 유치하고 있습니다. 현대 사회의 대형 카지노는 사실상 카지노가 아니라, 카지노가 포함된 복합 휴양지로 생각해도 무리가 없습니다. 카지노 업체가 건설업을 겸하는 경우가 많은 것은 이 때문입니다. 카지노와 호텔을 짓고 기타 부대 시설까지 감안하면 건설업을 기반으로 하는 것이 유리합니다.

사람들이 베팅에서 패배하여 잃은 돈이 카지노의 수익인데, 사람들이 모두 계속 베팅에서 승리한다면 어떻게 될까요? 카지노는 적자를 보게 될 것입니다. 그런데 실제로는 이것이 완전히 불가능합니다. 바로 카지노 수익의 진정한 원천인 환수율(환급률) 덕분입니다. 카지노는 환수율(Pay Out)을 바탕으로 꾸준히 막대한 이익을 쌓아올릴 수 있습니다. 환수율은 손님이 베팅할 때 카지노가 기본적으로 가져가는 수수료(Commision)의 비율입니다. 예를 들어 환수율이 10%라면, 100원을 베팅했을 때 카지노가 10%의 금액을 제하고 90원을 지급한다는 의미입니다. 환수율은 결코 비밀이 아니며, 모든 카지노는 환수율이 얼마인지 정확하게 공개합니다. 환수율은 카지노에 따라 다르고, 카지노 게임마다 조금씩 차이가 있습니다.

따라서 환수율이 높을 수록 카지노의 수익은 상승합니다. 물론 환수율이 지나치게 높다면 사람들이 방문하지 않습니다. 게임에서 승리했는데 돈을 손 놓고 훔쳐가는 기분이 들 테니 당연한 일입니다. 통상 카지노 환수율은 97.5% 내외로 형성됩니다. 10,000원을 투자하면 기본적으로 카지노가 250원을 가져가는 것입니다. 손님 입장에서는 10,000원을 투자해도 기대 수익이 9,750원이므로 게임을 계속 할 수록 돈을 잃을 수밖에 없는 구조입니다.

이 환수율이 얼마 안 되는 것처럼 보일지 몰라도, 많은 사람이 많은 돈을 사용할 수록 누적 금액은 막대해집니다. 그래서 카지노는 손님이 낮은 확률의 잭팟에 당첨됐다고 해도 아무런 불만 없이 당첨금을 시원하게 지급합니다. 지급해봤자 지금까지 쌓아둔 이익에 비하면 보잘 것 없는 돈이기 때문입니다. 손님이 계속 승리해도 카지노는 일정한 수익이 보장됩니다. 카지노는 이렇게 거둬들인 돈으로 사업 운영비를 제하고도 막대한 순이익을 기록합니다. 이 환수율을 감안하여 배당률을 책정합니다. 예를 들어 바카라 게임은 플레이어 승리가 2배당인 반면, 뱅커 승리에 베팅할 경우 1.95배당을 책정합니다. 5%의 차이가 바로 수수료입니다. 카지노 게임 중 플레이어 승률이 가장 높다는 바카라조차 플레이어의 기대 승률이 50% 미만이지요. 손님이 계속 2배당으로 승패를 반복하면 결국 이 환수율의 덫에 걸려 모든 돈을 탕진할 수밖에 없는 이유입니다. 96%의 높은 환수율을 가진 슬롯도 실제로는 4%씩 계속 잃는 것이나 다름 없어서 카지노는 이런 슬롯머신을 수백 개 배치하여 박리다매형 수익을 올립니다.

아무리 환수율로 카지노가 일정 금액을 가져간다고 해도 그보다 훨씬 큰 이익을 쌓을 수도 있습니다. 운이 따라줘서 게임을 시작하자마자 연승을 거듭하는 경우입니다. 하지만 그것은 불가능합니다. 표본이 쌓이면 쌓일 수록 확률은 평균에 수렴하므로, 승률이 50%로 책정된 게임이라면 초반에 아무리 연승을 하더라도 결국 패배가 쌓여서 결과적으로 50%의 승률을 기록합니다. 게다가 특정 손님이 연승을 하더라도 더 많은 손님이 계속 패배하므로, 결국 최종 승자는 무조건 카지노가 될 수밖에 없습니다. 연승을 한 손님이 받는 돈도 결국은 다른 손님이 잃은 돈일 뿐입니다.

확률은 50%니까 뱅커가 10연승을 했다면, 이제는 플레이어가 승리할 차례라 생각하고 계속 플레이어에게 베팅하는 것도 통계학적 측면에서 어리석은 일입니다. 모든 게임의 확률은 독립시행, 즉 과거의 결과가 다음 번에 영향을 미치지 않기 때문입니다. 뱅커가 20연승을 했다고 해도 다음 라운드의 뱅커 승리 확률은 여전히 50%입니다.